Evaluación probabilística del riesgo de inundaciones bajo escenarios de cambio climático en una cuenca de los Cintis Chuquisaca

Abstract

The flood risk assessment in the studied basin, based on a probabilistic approach and climate change scenarios, reveals a significant increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events. Through the generation of stochastic storms and the use of hydraulic models such as HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS, the impacts of floods were estimated for 50- and 100-year return periods. The results show that the most exposed areas are the lowlands, where critical infrastructure and crops are highly vulnerable to significant damage. The vulnerability analysis, carried out using CAPRA-GIS software, projects considerable economic losses, highlighting the need to reinforce defensive infrastructure and improve early warning systems to mitigate the effects of climate change in this key region of Bolivia.